General Mills FY2026: Net Sales –5%, EPS –16%
Full-year net sales $18.4 billion, down 5% year-over-year. Adjusted diluted EPS $3.55, declined 16% in constant currency. Organic net sales declined 3% in Q3, with both volume and price/mix negative simultaneously. The company divested its US Yogurt business and took non-cash goodwill impairments during the year.
Why structural: A 5% full-year revenue decline with a 16% EPS collapse is not a blip — it's the portfolio yield of years of underinvestment in brand relevance. General Mills is selling assets to disguise the decay in its core.
Source: General Mills FY2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results (net sales $18.4B, adjusted diluted EPS $3.55); FY2023–FY2025 figures from prior-year General Mills fiscal-year results releases. Year-over-year change in reported net sales and adjusted diluted EPS. Chart: Atelier.
Walmart Bettergoods Expands to 10,000 Products Targeting Affluent
Walmart expanded its Bettergoods private label to 10,000 products — the fastest private label expansion in 20 years — explicitly targeting households earning $100k+. Simultaneously, Kirkland Signature (Costco) reached $90 billion in 2025 annual sales, representing 47% of all Costco volume.
Why structural: When the world's largest retailer stops positioning private label as a compromise and starts marketing it as a smart choice to premium shoppers, branded CPG's emotional premium has been eliminated. The retailer is now a direct competitor, not a channel.
Source: Walmart Corporate, "Walmart Launches Bettergoods, a New Private Brand Making Elevated Culinary Experiences Accessible for All," April 30, 2024.
GLP—1: Cornell Study, Conagra's Defensive On Track Line
Cornell University research circulating widely in July 2026: GLP-1 users spend 5.3% less on groceries within 6 months of starting medication; higher-income households cut 8%+. 3 million Canadian adults are now on GLP-1s (March 2026 survey), reshaping shopping baskets. Conagra's direct response: launched nearly 100 new products with "GLP-1 friendly" branding, including a dedicated "On Track" frozen/refrigerated line, timed to coincide with its S&P 500 exit.
Why structural: GLP-1 drugs are the first pharmacological intervention in CPG history. They cannot be marketed against. When a major frozen foods company launches a product line explicitly designed to retain consumers who are eating less, it is confirming that the demand destruction is real, permanent and at scale.
Source: Hristakeva, Liaukonytė & Feler, "The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption Is Changing Consumer Food Demand," Journal of Marketing Research, Dec. 18, 2025.
113 Tiny Brands Just Out-Grew the Entire Top 50
113 Insurgent brands capture 36% of all FMCG Growth. Bain's 10th Annual Insurgent Brands Report (March 2026, featured on Bain CPG hub July 14): 113 insurgent brands captured approximately 36% of all FMCG market growth in 2025 — up from 23% in 2024, a 13 percentage point jump in one year. These insurgents represent less than 2% of total market share. The top 50 global CPG companies grew revenue at just 1.2% in the same period.
Why structural: Tiny brands with no legacy infrastructure are capturing over a third of the industry's growth while billion-dollar portfolios stall at 1.2%. The traditional advantages — scale, distribution, advertising — are no longer moats.
Source: Bain & Company, "2026 US Insurgent Brands: Powering the Next Wave of Growth," March 4, 2026. In 2025, 113 insurgent brands captured about 36% of US FMCG market growth in tracked channels — up 13 points from 23% in 2024 — while holding less than 2% of total market share. The top 50 global CPG companies grew revenue 1.2%.
P&G Q4 FY2026: Organic Growth 0%, EPS –15%, 7,000 Jobs Cut
P&G Q4 FY2026: organic sales growth of 0% — flat. Diluted EPS fell 15% in Q4. Full-year core EPS grew just 1%. Net sales +2% in Q4 was entirely price, not volume. FY2027 guidance: only 1–3% organic growth with a $1 billion cost headwind flagged. 5,000 of 7,000 planned non-manufacturing job cuts have been executed, representing approximately 15% of P&G's office workforce.
Why structural: P&G is the definition of the established CPG model — global distribution, premium brands, massive advertising. Zero organic volume growth in Q4 means the consumer is trading down even from Tide and Pampers. The $1 billion cost headwind signals structural margin compression with no pricing lever remaining.
Source: P&G Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Results, July 29, 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026); job-cut progress from the Q4 FY2026 earnings call, transcript August 7, 2026. Organic sales growth was flat at 0%; Q4 diluted EPS of $1.26 was down 15% year over year. The 7,000 non-manufacturing role reductions — about 15% of P&G's office workforce.
CPG is a burning platform and I’m getting closer to saying my least favourite words… I… T… Y… S… But I won’t, I’ll let the DOOMSIGNALS say it for me.
Just remember — demand is there, people are buying, just not in the way the market thought they were.
Time to adapt.
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